This article was originally published here.
New data is shedding light on how long it takes to ensure a profit on Bitcoin.
According to Twitter analyst Bitcoin Economics, in order to have a 100% profit probability on Bitcoin, traders have to hold it for 1,135 days. That’s a little over three years.
By comparison, it takes an average of 23 years to ensure 100% profitability on the S&P 500.
The analysis is largely based on Bitcoin’s big jump to $1,150 in 2013.
Traders who bought at that level soon watched BTC plummet, and had to wait 1,135 days until it returned to that value in 2017.
Here’s an overview of how long traders have historically had to wait before achieving a high probability that their Bitcoin has risen in value.
- After 1 Day: 50%
- After 35 Days: 60%
- After 110 Days: 70%
- After 317 Days: 75%
- After 461 Days: 80%
- After 663 Days: 90%
- After 1,335 Days: 100%
Source: Bitcoin Economics/Twitter