This article was originally published here.
A well-known technical and fundamental crypto analyst on TradingView says he believes Bitcoin will hit new all-time highs before its next halving in May of 2020.
The analyst, known in the industry as FilbFilb, cites Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow ratio as a key indicator for mapping out BTC’s path ahead.
“Assuming that there is no systemic shock either via heavy regulatory enforcement or a global recession, I am of the view that we will see a continuation of what has been observed to date; Bitcoin will move through its next cycle at an increased pace to what we have seen previously.
I am expecting Bitcoin to break all-time highs for the first time in advance of the Halving. The Stock to flow model which I discussed last week, which I have illustrated on the chart and I recommend that you review (see @100trillionUSD on twitter) implies that Bitcoin will be worth around $100k from May 2020. It has been the best valuation model for Bitcoin to date.
With that in mind it seems reasonable that we will see continued accumulation which will ultimately lead to a supply shortage and a significant jump in the Bitcoin Price.”
Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow ratio has exploded in popularity this year and made it all the way to CNBC, where it was mentioned by anchor Joe Kernen.
The ratio is typically used to forecast the price of gold by taking its current supply and dividing it by the amount produced per year.
Stock to flow and #bitcoin price are cointegrated
Cointegration is completely different from correlation
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) September 8, 2019
FilbFilb says the Bitcoin bull cycle he believes is on the horizon will give the leading cryptocurrency far more notoriety and maturity as an asset. He also believes it will be Bitcoin’s last parabolic bull run.
“I’m fairly stubborn in my view that this is likely to be the last big Bitcoin Bubble and the reason is that if Bitcoin can realize a trillion USD market cap and maintain it without dramatic regulation, it will have arrived on the world stage as a legitimate store of value.
The value proposition will largely be understood if this is to occur and price should become more effective. Price discovery will no longer be leading dramatic boom-busts; 85% selloffs and 10x annual gains. These are most likely to be a thing of the past, with this asset tapering off into a steady annual return proposition beyond this cycle, which is exactly what should happen if the market really is becoming efficient in its pricing mechanism.
While this all sounds great, it is largely educated guess work and should be treated as such. Should there be a big USA or EU bans Bitcoin event or similar, there is no doubt in my mind that the impact on price would be devastating. Similarly, if there were to be a coding issue, we would also see a significant sell off, possibly irrecoverably so.”
You can check out the full analysis here.